More than half (58%) of the Czech population agrees with the conclusions of the police investigation into the 2014 explosions at the ammunition depots in Vrbětice. The Czech police consider it proven that the explosions were carried out by members of Russian military intelligence GRU. Subsequently, 69% of respondents to the CEDMO Trends longitudinal panel survey agreed with the assumption that Russian intelligence services have been operating on Czech territory for a long time.

Men (63%) were more likely to agree with the conclusions of the police investigation into the ammunition depot explosions in Vrbětice than women (53%), university-educated people (66%), respondents living in Prague and Central Bohemia (64%), and voters of Petr Pavel (76%) versus voters of Andrej Babiš (40%) in the second round of the presidential election. The view that Russian intelligence services have been operating on Czech territory for a long time is more common among men (74%) than women (65%) and university-educated people (77%). Voters of Petr Pavel (85%) are significantly more likely to share this belief than voters of Andrej Babiš (53%) in the second round of the presidential election.

Conclusions of the investigation into Vrbětice and Russian intelligence

Chart 1: Survey question: ‘In April 2024 the police closed the case of the explosion of the ammunition depots in Vrbětice after three years of investigation. In the official conclusion of the investigation, two Russian agents were blamed. A) Do you agree with the conclusion of the investigation? B) Do you believe that the Russian secret services have been operating on our territory for a long time?” Respondents recorded their answers on a seven-point scale with the extremes described.

N=2,794, Source: CEDMO Trends CR, 14th wave

Who’s behind the explosion

“A total of 17% of respondents disagreed with the official conclusions of the investigation into the Vrbětice case published by the Police of the Czech Republic. People who disagreed with the conclusions of the investigation most often believed that the explosions were an accident (10%), or that the owner of the warehouse or his staff were responsible for the explosions (9%), or that the American secret services or the West in general were responsible (9%). Less than a third (29%) of those who disagreed with the conclusions, however, did not give any specific explanation,” explains CEDMO Trends data analyst Lukáš Kutil, adding, “More men (19%) than women (15%), and more often older people, expressed disagreement. The older the respondent, the more likely they were to disagree. The youngest respondents under 24 disagreed 7% of the time, while the oldest respondents over 65 disagreed 25% of the time. Those who disagreed were mostly people with primary or secondary education without a high school diploma and people from regions outside Prague and Central Bohemia.”

Awareness and credibility of the disinformation narrative

Chart 2: Survey question: ‘A) To what extent are you aware of the following news/information? B) To what extent do you consider the following news to be unreliable or credible? – The Czech Republic has no direct evidence for the accusation that the Russian Federation committed the explosions in Vrbětice.”

N=2,729, Source: CEDMO Trends 15th wave

Almost a third of respondents (29%) surveyed in the second half of June this year, when the data collection of the fifteenth wave of the CEDMO Trends longitudinal survey was conducted, noted the false narrative in connection with the investigation of the Vrbětice case: “The Czech Republic has no direct evidence to accuse the Russian Federation of perpetrating the explosions in Vrbětice.” This false report was considered credible by 42% of the survey participants (including those who had not encountered the message before).

The introductory picture of the article is for illustration only. Source: Canva