On Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the sixtieth presidential election took place in the USA, in which Republican Donald Trump defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Immediately after the announcement of the results, we asked respondents of our longitudinal research CEDMO Trends in the Czech Republic and Slovakia which of the candidates for US president they preferred, how satisfied they were with the election results, and what their expectations were from the newly elected president in addressing global issues.
We published selected questions in the so-called CEDMO Special Brief on the presidential elections and supplemented them with a brief overview of widespread false narratives circulating in the Central European digital information space (besides the Czech Republic and Slovakia, also in Poland). The brief is available in the language versions of all the countries we cover (Polish, Czech, Slovak) and also in English translation.
Trump Enjoys Greater Support in Slovakia than in the Czech Republic
Among Czech and Slovak citizens, the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris had predominant support in the election. Approximately two out of five respondents in the Czech Republic (43%) and a third of respondents in Slovakia (33%) found her more sympathetic. The victorious Republican candidate Donald Trump would be supported by just over a fifth of Czech respondents (22%) and nearly a third of Slovak respondents (29%). The results show that Donald Trump enjoys greater support in Slovakia than in the Czech Republic (a difference of 7 percentage points). The difference in sympathy for Kamala Harris is also significant (10 percentage points).
More Than Half of SPD and SMER Voters Prefer the Winning Candidate
Considering domestic political preferences, 70% of those who voted for the Pirate and STAN coalition in the 2021 Czech parliamentary elections and 61% of SPOLU coalition voters would prefer Kamala Harris as US president. In Slovakia, more than three-quarters of Progressive Slovakia voters and nearly two-thirds of SaS voters would support her. Conversely, 55% of Czech SPD voters, three out of five Slovak Republic voters, and more than half of SMER voters would prefer Donald Trump. Among ANO voters, Czech supporters of both US presidential candidates are roughly divided into thirds between fans of Harris and Trump. In Slovakia, a third of HLAS voters expressed support for Kamala Harris and a quarter for Donald Trump.
Young Respondents Aged 16-24 Are the Least Satisfied with the Election Results
The greater popularity of Donald Trump in Slovakia than in the Czech Republic is also evident from the question of satisfaction with his election. While 31% of respondents in the Czech Republic are satisfied with his election (most often high school graduates without a diploma), in Slovakia it is 38% (most often people with basic education). Conversely, young respondents aged 16-24 are dissatisfied with his election in both countries.
The Greatest Positive Impact Expected on the US Economy and Relations with Russia, the Least on Climate Change Solutions
Both Czechs and Slovaks expect the newly elected president to have the most positive impact on the development of the US economy (expected by 54% of Czechs and 51% of Slovaks) and on relations with Russia (expected by 43% of Czechs and 44% of Slovaks). Conversely, respondents in neither country expect a positive impact on climate change solutions (53% of both Czechs and Slovaks do not expect it).
False Claims Circulating in the Central European Information Space in the Third and Fourth Quarters of 2024 in Connection with the US Presidential Elections
Fact-checkers associated under the CEDMO hub (i.e., Demagog.cz, Demagog.sk, Demagog.pl, and AFP) focused on several main disinformation narratives related to the US presidential elections. One of them was a fabricated testimony about an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Donald Trump, allegedly from a secret service sniper. The sniper supposedly received orders not to intervene against a man who shot at the presidential candidate at a rally. However, the story originated from an anonymous internet forum, and no one named as the alleged sniper works for the US secret service.
Other disinformation concerned the candidates directly. For example, a video in which Kamala Harris simplistically described the war in Ukraine was taken out of context and suggested that she knew nothing about the conflict. In Poland, a false accusation circulated that the newly elected Vice President of the United States, J. D. Vance, attacked Poles in his book Hillbilly Elegy. However, the quote was based on the film adaptation of the book and did not come from the original work. Similarly, Donald Trump was falsely accused of calling Republican voters stupid in 1998, which he never said. Fact-checkers also uncovered a number of posts with content generated by artificial intelligence, such as a deepfake video parodying Kamala Harris or a fake image of Donald Trump being arrested.
After the elections, misleading interpretations of the election results appeared, such as maps of the USA showing election results at the county level, which were incorrectly interpreted as an overview of the actual number of voters. There were also false posts with an election map suggesting that Democrats won in some states only due to lax voter identification requirements.
